The results from Early Action and Early Decision (Round 1) are in. The data shows selective colleges are continuing to use enrollment strategies like Early Decision to fill large portions of their classes and are relying on waitlists to fill their gaps. But new trends have emerged, like deferring top applicants from early to regular admission rounds or denying (vs. deferring) more Early applicants than in the past. The pandemic brought uncertainty about where students would enroll, as well as significant increases in applications (in part due to test-optional policies). With the current “holistic admission practices trend,” selective college admissions is no longer simply about admitting the most talented students. Colleges are using these tools to fill (but not overfill) their classes with high achieving students that also offer diverse backgrounds, experiences, or talents.
Fall 2021 data shows an increase in Early Decision (ED) acceptances to fill up selective colleges’ classes. Barnard, Tulane, and Wash U in St. Louis, for example, filled more than (Barnard), just at (Wash U) or almost (Tulane) 60% of their class via Early Decision. Colleges are using ED to lock in hard-to-get, highly desirable candidates (students of color are reported to be—by far—the top priority, then first-generation, specific talents, etc.) Note: Legacy status is losing its impact at many colleges.
The data also shows a decrease in Early Action (EA) rates at a number of highly selective colleges. You can see EA rates for 2021 using the link above and compare this to Fall 2020 data. Northeastern University, for example, went from admitting 20% of Early Action applicants in 2020-2021 to only 6% this cycle! Note: many colleges are withholding Early Admission data because they don’t want to discourage students from applying.
In the past, many colleges would defer Early Decision applicants rather than outright deny them, giving them a “soft” denial. The trend this year is more colleges are denying (vs. deferring) more Early Action/Early Decision candidates than in the past (knowing that Regular Decision application numbers will likely be high). Some highly selective colleges deferred early applicants simply because they were understaffed and couldn’t get through all of the applications in time. Others are deferring applicants to compare them with the rest of the pool. Waitlists will likely remain long, but waitlist admission rates will continue to be unpredictable. Beyond simply filling seats, waitlists can also help schools address demographic or interest-based deficiencies in their admission pool, allowing admissions officers to balance the incoming class across demographics and interests.
UC Selectivity Rates are Likely to Change
Despite a budget agreement in 2016 that the UC would limit its share of nonresident students to 18% at most of its campuses, Berkeley, UCLA, and UC San Diego were allowed to keep their nonresident enrollment steady at about 23%. Other top public universities in the U.S. average closer to 30%. However, this is about to change. In addition to the UCs being incentivized by the state government to enroll more in-state applicants and fewer out-of-state students, UC Berkeley specifically will likely have to cut admission offers considerably this year.
A county judge ordered the campus to keep its enrollment flat (at pandemic enrollment levels equal to the 2020-2021 academic year) after siding with community groups suing the school over the environmental impact of its increasing footprint. If the order is not overturned soon, Berkeley will be forced to trim its enrollment by 3,000 students (equating to over 5,000 fewer admission offers). This enrollment freeze comes at a time when UC Berkeley again topped its record-breaking number of applicants, with more than 128,100 high school seniors applying for the fall 2022 freshman class, according to a UC Berkeley press release.
This is not great news for out-of-state applicants, but essential to know before you receive your admission decisions or add a UC to your college list. The trend of decreasing the number of out-of-state students will continue, as the California Senate recently unveiled a plan to reduce the non-resident share of UC undergraduates down to 10% by 2033.
What do the trends and changes in UC Admissions mean?
Selective college admissions have changed, and students should not compare their admission outcomes to the outcomes students had in the past. Colleges are focusing on having diverse classes, admitting students they feel are very likely to accept an offer of admission, and, in some cases, prioritizing in-state applicants.
Future applicants have to shift how they create their college lists. Students can no longer weigh down their lists with mostly highly “selectives”. Instead, students should focus on a few highly selective colleges that are great fits, and give them lots of attention, research time, and well-crafted essays. They should also consider applying Early Decision to one school if it offers an admission advantage and if it makes financial sense.
Then, students must spend equal time finding target schools they love and giving these schools a good amount of attention. Both “target” and selective schools are paying more attention to demonstrated interest. Selective schools in the midwest, for example, are paying attention to whether or not students visit, and the yield rates from certain states. Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, knows that it only yields 20% from California. Case, like many other schools, wants to protect its yield (the % of students who accept an offer of admission), so they pay attention to demonstrated interest and think carefully about offering admission even to strong applicants.
Key Takeaway: Colleges are demanding more of students in the research, contact, and application process, which means your list needs to be refined, tightened, and possibly, shortened.
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